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Nations around the world are teetering on the edge of population collapse. Despite a growing world population, more than half of nations and territories have fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman required to sustain population size. South Korea leads the list with an average fertility rate of 0.78, unprecedented in world history. The United Nations estimates that South Korea’s population will decrease by more than half by the end of the century, losing roughly 30 million people. However, this is not a problem relegated to the far east; the western world is plagued by declining birth rates with countries like Germany, France, Canada, and the U.S. falling well below the replacement rate. In fact, without immigration the U.S. population would be decreasing, and even with immigration our population will begin declining in the second half of this century.
A low birth rate and declining population signal calamitous economic effects. The elderly become a larger proportion of the population and less young people are available for work. Since medical care increases with age, an ageing population puts upward pressure on medical costs and overburdens the social net. On the other hand, a declining labor force leads to less government revenue from income and payroll taxes. The result is a pernicious feedback loop where social welfare programs become more expensive while the budget shrinks. Even with a growing population, Social Security faces solvency issues. Less government revenue from a shrinking labor force also handicaps debt reduction and GDP growth. A recent study from the University of Organ found that “each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60 and older decreased the growth of per capita GDP by 5.5 percent.” If we want to escape this impending economic death spiral, we must find a way for the U.S. population to continue expanding. A realistic inquiry will consider effectiveness and political feasibility; a proposed solution must be effective and likely to be adopted by the U.S. government.
Worldwide, pronatalism (government encouragement of reproduction) appears to be the most popular response to declining birth rates. For instance, South Korea subsidizes families, Russia has created national holidays for procreation, and China calls woman to encourage them to conceive. However, pronatalist policies have little effect on birth rates; in all of the above-mentioned countries, birth rates are still plummeting. Understanding the ineffectiveness of pronatalist policies is especially important at this critical moment in U.S. politics where the Political Right is making a pronatalist push.
Pronatalism builds upon the myth that economic factors are the main motivator behind the decision to have kids. Some sources, including the American Psychological Association, are quick to blame skyrocketing mortgages, student loan debt, and economic instability. However, there is a negative correlation between income level and fertility. Industrialized nations with high GDP per capita have some of the lowest birth rates in the world and third world countries have some of the highest birth rates. Yet, pronatalist policies attempt to encourage reproduction through economic incentives like larger tax rebates, subsidies for reproduction, or Trump’s plan to make insurance companies cover the cost of IVF treatment.
A more plausible theory places the blame for declining birth rates on social, rather than economic, factors. According to a study published by the National Institutes for Health, fertility rates are motivated by access to contraceptives and the level of female education. Similarly, Our World in Data cites the “empowerment of women” as a major reason for the rapid decline in the global fertility rate. The United Nations Population Fund describes lower birth rates as “an indication of the increasing control that individuals, particularly women, are able to exercise over their reproductive lives.”
Thus, we come to the darker side of the pronatalist movement – an attempt to revive birth rates by turning the clock back on women’s rights. Iran is already hard at work on this enterprise; in 2021, the Iranian government passed the “rejuvenation of the population and support of family” bill, which outlaws sterilization and free distribution of contraceptives. Likewise, in 2021 the Chinese government published the Central Committee’s Decision on Optimizing Fertility Policy, containing concerningly coercive propaganda goals like promoting childbirth at the “appropriate age” for “national survival and development.” The similarity between such policies and dystopian novels like the Handmaid’s Tale is hard to miss.
Which brings us to the second part of the analysis – not only are pronatalist policies ineffective, but they are also politically infeasible. For example, an overwhelming majority of Americans support legislation that protects access to contraceptives, not to mention Constitutional protections like Griswold v. Connecticut. The American public is unlikely to follow in the footsteps of Islamic theocracies or Communist states.
Unlike pronatalism, immigration proves to be effective and politically feasible. Net immigration is the main reason the U.S. population is currently growing and legal immigration remains a bipartisan issue. While heavily discouraging illegal immigration, President-elect Donald Trump has advocated for legal immigration, even suggesting a system that would give green cards to foreign students who graduate from colleges in the United States.
The decision of whether to have kids and how many to have is a deeply personal choice that government is unlikely to influence absent coercive, totalitarian measures. Without losing personal freedom, the best we can do is supplement the declining population growth with net immigration. Unfortunately, even expanding legal immigration is unlikely to stave off population collapse. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that by the end of the century only a handful of nations will still have birth rates above replacement. The best we can do is keep our heads above water for as long as possible.
Suggested Citation: Nicholas Bonk-Harrison, Immigration as the Only Politically Feasible Solution to Population Collapse, Cornell J.L. & Pub. Pol’y, The Issue Spotter, (Nov. 20, 2024), https://jlpp.org/immigration-as-the-only-politically-feasible-solution-to-population-collapse/.
